Florida’s Battle to Legalize Cannabis Heats Up Ahead of Amendment 3 Ballot Measure

The fight to expand the nation’s most robust medical cannabis market to adult use is only continuing to heat up ahead of the November election in Florida.

The state’s Yes on 3 campaign, sponsored by Smart & Safe Florida and financially backed by Tallahassee-based cannabis company Trulieve and other multistate operators, began running television ads in May to support Amendment 3, the constitutional measure to legalize cannabis for those 21 and older.

TV advertisements are one of the most powerful means of drawing support or opposition for the citizen-initiated amendment, which requires a 60% supermajority vote of approval to pass, Saul Ewing Partner Zachary Kobrin told Cannabis Business Times.

“I think the TV ads are definitely going to have a bigger impact than public endorsements,” Kobrin said. Based in South Florida, Kobrin is the former vice president and general counsel for Trulieve, overseeing a $2.1 billion acquisition in 2021 that turned the company into one of the largest publicly traded cannabis operators worldwide.

Trulieve is one of 25 vertically integrated Medical Marijuana Treatment Centers (MMTCs) in Florida’s roughly $2 billion cannabis market, according to 2024 sales projections from industry consumer insights firm Brightfield Group. Trulieve has 142 Florida medical dispensaries, representing 21.5% of the state’s retail landscape.

As of July 26, Trulieve contributed $60.4 million of the $66.7 million raised by the Yes on 3 campaign, according to the Florida Division of Elections (DEL). Fellow multistate operators Verano ($2.5 million), Curaleaf ($2 million), Green Thumb Industries ($500,000), AYR Wellness ($500,000), Cresco Labs ($400,000) and INSA ($244,000) are the other main contributors.

While Trulieve began funding the campaign two years ago, the state’s Supreme Court didn’t approve the ballot language until April 2024, and opposition campaigns are just starting to catch up on the funding front.

Notably, billionaire Ken Griffin, the CEO of multinational hedge fund Citadel, wrote an opinion piece Aug. 2 in the Miami Herald opposing Amendment 3, calling it a “terrible plan to create the nation’s most expansive and destructive marijuana laws,” and pledging $12 million to defeat it.

Multiple news sources reported that Griffin’s eight-figure contribution will go to Keep Florida Clean Inc., one of two political action committees (PAC) created by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ chief of staff, James Uthmeier, to defeat the measure.

Keep Florida Clean is the PAC for the “Vote No on 3” campaign. Uthmeier registered as the chair of the PAC in mid-July. The committee received just $204 in contributions from two donors in its first 11 days (before the Griffin contribution), according to the DEL.

Uthmeier also chairs the Florida Freedom Fund, a PAC that registered in late May to oppose Amendment 3 and Amendment 4, the latter being a constitutional measure to “limit government interference with abortion.” The Freedom Fund had raised nearly $1.8 million as of July 25, according to the DEL.

Griffin’s $12 million contribution represents DeSantis’ political clout on the issue of legalization, Kobrin said. An outspoken opponent of adult-use cannabis, DeSantis has repeatedly complained about the plant’s smell during the past year.

RELATED: Florida Governor Says ‘Drugs Are Killing This Country’ When Asked About Cannabis Policy

“It would appear the governor has called in support from his supporters to oppose Amendment 3, as many expected,” Kobrin said. “Florida is a large state, and campaigns are very much driven by media. More money towards the anti-Amendment 3 efforts will obviously increase the media buy. Couple that with the fact that people like Ken Griffin clearly have a large network of supporters that will look to agree with his position.”

Here, Kobrin discusses myriad factors related to Amendment 3’s passage, from campaign finance and endorsements to Florida’s 2024 election dynamics, as well as recent polling, Florida’s hemp-versus-cannabis storyline, and how state lawmakers could impact a potential marketplace under adult-use legalization.

Saul Ewing LLP

About Kobrin’s political background: After graduating from the Florida State University with a degree in economics and political science, Kobrin spent a number of years working in all levels of government and politics, having worked on multiple presidential, gubernatorial, state and local political campaigns. He also served as chief of staff and senior legislative aide to former Florida State Senate President, Sen. Gwen Margolis. In that capacity, Kobrin was the senator’s chief policy and budget adviser and drafted legislation involving real estate, taxation, transportation, economic development and environmental preservation. In 2008, Kobrin left government to pursue a legal career.

Editor’s note: This interview was edited for style, length and clarity.

Tony Lange: What are the chances that Amendment 3 will pass Florida’s 60% threshold?

Zack Kobrin: I think it passes. It’ll be close.

Lange: What’s the biggest thing happening with Amendment 3 with three months to go before the election?

Kobrin: Beyond what the governor is doing, there’s definitely a concerted effort to fight it. But the dynamic has become interesting because this legislative session, we had this really bad bill for the hemp industry [S.B. 1698], which a lot of people have heard about, and it effectively would’ve gutted the hemp, the intoxicated cannabinoids industry. Florida was one of the first states to jump out with their hemp program. A lot of businesses are based down here. There was a real organized effort from the hemp folks for a veto, and I think the governor is seeing political opportunity. It’s strange bedfellows because I don’t think the governor cares about the hemp industry. I just think he is fervently opposed to the adult-use amendment. So now he’s trying to mobilize the hemp folks against Amendment 3.

Lange: When Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed S.B. 1698 in early June, did that further fuel the hemp-versus-cannabis dynamic in Florida?

Kobrin: The speculation was that S.B. 1698 was heavily pushed by and supported by, in part, the MMTCs on the regulated cannabis side, which makes sense theoretically because if you’re selling a product that you have to go through full regulations and someone can just walk into a smoke shop and buy THCA, it makes full sense. So, there is already an apprehension between those that have developed large hemp programs and hemp companies and the medical cannabis program because it’s competition. So that’s how it started.

Do I think DeSantis cares about the hemp industry? Probably not. Do I think he saw this as a political opportunity—the enemy of my enemy is my friend type thing? Absolutely. But I don’t know how much money the hemp industry is actually donating to stop the Amendment 3 side.

Lange: The Florida Sheriffs Association and Florida Police Chiefs Association recently voiced opposition to Amendment 3, while Republican state Sen. Joe Gruters endorsed the measure. How much can these public figures and associations sway public opinion?

Kobrin: My gut tells me not much. Joe Gruters, he’s got his circle of people. Is it a good endorsement? Yeah. And there are countless other endorsements. I think his endorsement has an interesting play because he’s the former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida. He's got a lot of deep-rooted ties to the Republican Party in Florida. And within Republican circles, he’s well-respected. The two law enforcement groups, I don’t necessarily think it was unexpected. … I just don’t know how much those kind of endorsements, one way or the other, will play in the grand scheme. I think they’ll play in smaller circles.

Lange: How will Citadel CEO Ken Griffin’s $12 million contribution to defeat Amendment 3 impact its chances for passage?

Kobrin: I definitely think it will have an impact. … I do think the timing is interesting that his op-ed came out very quickly after a prominent Republican senator [Gruters] came out in favor of Amendment 3. At the end of the day, yes, it will have an impact, but I don’t think it is going to tip the scale completely in favor of the anti-Amendment 3 campaign.

Lange: Not only is 2024 a presidential election but there’s also an abortion amendment on the Florida ballot. How do those two factors impact Amendment 3’s chances for passage?

Kobrin: Now, with Biden dropping out and Harris jumping in, I think there’s an excitement on the Democratic side that is going to drive turnout. In the presidential years, it’s always about turnout. … If people show up for the abortion amendment, I think it will help Amendment 3. It is a pro-personal rights type amendment by pro-choice advocates. I think those two factors in the world we live in now probably will help Amendment 3 to the extent that they’re driving turnout.

Lange: The University of North Florida’s July 30 poll showed that 64% of Florida voters support Amendment 3. How much weight do polls like this carry?

Kobrin: I think there are a couple of factors that may be playing in. One, it’s really worth noting that the UNF poll that came out [mirrored a separate poll that was] commissioned by the anti-Amendment 3 supporters. So that’s really interesting to come out. Two, I think it’s one of the first polls we’ve seen since the Smart and Safe pro-Amendment 3 groups started getting on television. So, I’m not surprised the numbers [are higher than some previous polls], because we’re starting to see TV ads, we’re starting to see more talk. I’ll be very interested to see a month from now where the polling is. My gut says it’s going to sit around 65%.

Lange: Other than TV ads, why would various polls have varying results?

Kobrin: It depends on where you’re taking the polls from. The reality is Florida really is two or three different states in and of itself. If you have a poll of 1,500 people and two-thirds of them that you’re taking are in North Florida, you’re going to get different results than if you’re polling mostly in South Florida. So, I would be curious to see a breakdown within the polling of where things fall. Is there a higher percentage in the South Florida counties in Tampa and Central Florida, the more populated areas, or what are the numbers? If the numbers in more rural or North Florida counties are heavy in support, then Amendment 3 is going to have a great night. It’s just the way the politics plays out.

Editor’s note: CBT reached out to University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab Director Michael Binder, who said the majority of highly populated regions like Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, West Palm Beach and Miami were in the 63%-64% support range in the UNF poll, while Fort Myers/Naples was at 60%. Some of the less populated regions had too few respondents for reliable estimates.

Lange: Only three states—Arizona, New Jersey and Maryland—gained 60% or more voter support among 15 states to legalize adult-use cannabis via the election process. How does Florida compare?

Kobrin: Florida’s measure was written specifically to be able to pass Supreme Court scrutiny and get on the ballot. It was written in the most simplistic manner to avoid questions of whether it’s a single subject or confusing, etc. Listen, do I think that there are some people that are going to vote against it because of certain things on the ballot? Yeah. I think they’re in the minority, though. There are certain people that are definitely going to say, “Hey, there’s no home grow in here. It doesn’t go far enough.” I think the vast majority of people that are going to vote for it are going to look at a simple macro view of “this legalizes adult use.”

Lange: With the simplistic amendment language, the Florida Legislature would have to pass legislation to implement regulations for an adult-use marketplace, right?

Kobrin: I hate to say it, the Legislature’s going to find a way to screw it up. … The unfortunateness is, I think that the Legislature is really divided on the issue. I don’t think the Legislature is as in tune with what the public sees about this. In my eyes, this is an opportunity to create a really well-run, regulated industry in Florida that can drive a boatload, an immense amount of tax revenue, and there are a hundred different ways you could set it up. Do you keep vertical? Do you keep the existing vertical but break it up later and open up a round for horizontal for dispensaries? There are tons of ways that you could structure this. … I would love to see the state act like Missouri and be like, “Hey, we see the numbers. We see the writing on the wall. Let’s be proactive and start the process. That way, we can roll out a program as quickly as we can.” I don’t see that happening. But the real question is, will the Legislature try to restrict the program, and if so, how much?

Lange: So, you’re saying that the Florida state lawmakers aren’t preparing draft legislation beforehand?

Kobrin: You probably have some within leadership saying, “Hey, listen, we need to be prepared for this,” but I think it’s going to be a fight. Look, you’re going to have the existing MMTCs that want to keep as much of the status quo as possible. You are going to have the hemp industry—they’re going to immediately want to be involved. So, you’ve got hemp operators and smoke shop operators and distributors and manufacturers that are all going to say, “Well, how do we get involved?” They’re going to be lobbying for a more open program.

I just think the longer they wait to implement something, the more confusing the program is going to be, the more problems are likely going to ensue.

Lange: Cannabis Business Times recently conducted a survey that found roughly half of hemp businesses feel intoxicating hemp-derived cannabinoids should be regulated like cannabis. Does that seem to be true in Florida?

Kobrin: I represent both sides. … I think the reality is there is a world where these two industries can work together. I also think certain people, to the hemp industry’s credit, if you talk to many of the hemp operators, manufacturers, distributors, etc., they don’t mind. They want to be regulated. Their attitude has been, “Tell me what the right way to do it is, and we’ll do it. Just don’t kill my business.” So, I’ve got a lot of clients on the hemp side, and they all have basically said to the Department of Agriculture, “What’s the correct way to be doing things?”

Lange: Has the Florida Department of Agriculture provided them with guidance?

Kobrin: It’s unfortunate because the reality is you had a prior commissioner of agriculture that was extremely pro-hemp industry and put in place a very robust, very open program to entice business. And then her replacement comes in and [calls on Congress to change the definition of hemp] … Imagine if you built a business that employed hundreds of people, and then a newly elected official comes in, and it’s kind of like moving the board. Look, the majority of hemp industry operators I’ve talked to want to be regulated. They just wanted to be regulated fairly.

Lange: Florida had a formal application period in April 2023 to award 22 additional medical cannabis licenses. Will any of those licenses be issued before the election?

Kobrin: Listen, it’s reading tea leaves at this point. A lot of people think that they’re just going to wait until after the election and not do anything. I would love to say I’ve got the inside track, but I don’t think anybody has an inside track. The one thing I will say is that OMMU [Office of Medical Marijuana Use] has been very tight-lipped as of late. … The last I heard was that the OMMU had sent notices to people that had deficiencies within their background checks. I don’t know what else OMMU could be doing at this point because it shouldn’t take this long for the consultants to do their scoring. … The reality is you’ve got a lot of operators that have a ton of carrying costs. People are paying leasehold fees. People are paying for consultants. There’s a lot of money being spent just sitting here and waiting.